WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
15%
ICON
6%
WN2
4%
AIFS
3%
HRES
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u
VS
HRESNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.88u · HRES −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-14 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.6%———4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:004.9%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0036.4%———27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0044.7%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0012.0%———25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0023.2%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0011.5%———30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0027.0%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0032.5%———30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0018.2%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0021.6%———28.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0011.0%———25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.2%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0016.5%———19.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0015.5%———18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0024.0%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0060.3%———21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0022.9%—3.4%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0034.0%———18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0034.8%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0024.5%———15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:008.5%—3.0%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:005.9%———16.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:006.7%—20.2%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:007.6%———16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:002.5%—41.1%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.8%—46.8%—7.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.5%—37.0%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.7%0.4%23.3%—8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.7%—10.7%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.6%12.6%30.5%0.5%5.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:004.2%—37.3%——
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.3%4.8%27.9%0.6%4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.9%—22.1%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.7%1.1%0.6%1.6%2.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.8%—21.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.8%14.0%1.5%2.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——17.9%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble15%58.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast14%57.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON6%53.1°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend4%55.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%55.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%53.2°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%50.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗