KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u

HRESNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.88u · HRES −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:04+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	31.7%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	31.7%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	31.7%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	31.7%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	31.7%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	14.0%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	14.0%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	15.2%	15.3%	14.0%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	16.1%	15.3%	14.0%	12.6%	12.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	16.1%	15.3%	14.1%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	14.1%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	14.1%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	14.1%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	17.9%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	17.9%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	16.1%	17.0%	17.9%	12.6%	13.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	17.9%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	17.9%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	17.9%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	17.9%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	17.9%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	4.1%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	9.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	8.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	8.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	8.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	8.5%	10.2%	42.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	2.5%	17.0%	8.5%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	2.5%	17.0%	8.5%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	2.5%	17.0%	8.5%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	2.5%	17.0%	8.5%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	2.5%	17.0%	8.5%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	2.5%	14.1%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	2.5%	14.1%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	2.5%	14.1%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	6.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	8.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	8.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	8.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	13.0%	13.6%	8.2%	13.1%	22.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	8.2%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	8.2%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	8.2%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	8.2%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	5.4%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	5.7%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	9.6%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	9.6%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	16.8%	13.6%	9.6%	9.9%	12.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	3.0%	13.6%	9.6%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	3.0%	13.6%	9.6%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	3.0%	13.6%	9.6%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	3.0%	13.6%	9.6%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	3.0%	13.6%	9.6%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	3.0%	14.7%	3.8%	1.8%	6.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	3.0%	14.7%	3.8%	1.8%	6.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	15%	58.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	6%	53.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	55.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	55.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	53.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	50.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 63°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗