KSEA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

64%

63%

49%

20%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.85u · ICON −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	57.2%	60.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	50.0%	46.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	43.0%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	11.7%	45.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	67.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	1.3%	57.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	74.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	57.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	57.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	57.3°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	55.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	47.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261026-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗