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KSEA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
64%
EPS
64%
WN2
63%
AIFS
49%
ICON
20%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 42.1¢Risks 42.15u
VS
ICONNO 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +57.85u · ICON −57.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:0048.6%63.8%62.9%64.5%19.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0048.6%63.8%62.9%64.5%19.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0048.6%63.8%62.9%64.5%19.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0048.6%63.8%62.9%64.5%19.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0048.6%63.8%62.9%64.5%19.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES64%57.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%57.8°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 263%57.3°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend55%56.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%55.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON20%47.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261026-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗