KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

48%

17%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.9¢Risks 28.95u

WN2NO 71.0¢Risks 71.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.05u · WN2 −71.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	53.9%	71.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	66.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	0.1%	13.9%	0.0%	45.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	0.2%	13.9%	0.0%	52.1%	65.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	0.2%	14.0%	0.0%	52.1%	65.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	0.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	0.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	0.0%	47.9%	57.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	0.0%	47.9%	57.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
ICON	58%	84.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3352
IFS HRES	48%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2294
National Blend	41%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	17%	80.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0282
AIFS Single	<1%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	71.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗