KSFO / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

48%

17%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.9¢Risks 28.95u

WN2NO 71.0¢Risks 71.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.05u · WN2 −71.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	60.6%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	69.4%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	75.1%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	72.0%	72.0%	0.0%	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	75.7%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	36.5%	74.9%	2.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.0%	67.0%	6.7%	—	0.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	29.3%	62.3%	7.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	47.4%	62.9%	3.4%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.4%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	65.3%	59.1%	23.7%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.5%	69.9%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	58.7%	68.7%	29.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	45.0%	72.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	44.9%	73.2%	44.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	57.4%	77.2%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	73.6%	74.5%	21.3%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	80.2%	61.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	70.0%	62.6%	19.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	84.0%	61.9%	19.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	80.1%	68.0%	14.4%	0.2%	1.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	78.1%	66.3%	5.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	74.9%	71.6%	11.3%	0.4%	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	71.2%	91.9%	3.7%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	76.6%	87.0%	28.0%	0.5%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	74.0%	95.2%	22.4%	—	6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	80.8%	93.4%	31.7%	0.7%	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.0%	97.2%	17.0%	—	12.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
ICON	58%	84.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3352
IFS HRES	48%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2294
National Blend	41%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	17%	80.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0282
AIFS Single	<1%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	71.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗