KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

54%

18%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

WN2NO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · WN2 −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	59.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	98.9%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	99.7%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	99.7%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	54.2%	97.8%	2.2%	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	30.4%	44.2%	4.4%	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	40.2%	73.6%	7.3%	—	11.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	18.4%	11.5%	6.2%	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	28.6%	39.3%	12.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	5.9%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	8.0%	50.9%	22.8%	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	14.0%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	28.9%	49.1%	25.1%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	37.0%	30.9%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	33.0%	30.4%	20.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	47.0%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	33.0%	41.8%	15.1%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	56.3%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	56.5%	27.3%	9.9%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	54.5%	29.6%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	45.4%	24.2%	2.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	28.3%	0.9%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.7%	35.4%	3.5%	3.5%	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	50.0%	48.7%	0.7%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	42.0%	48.7%	4.6%	4.0%	0.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.8%	63.7%	2.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.2%	80.9%	1.6%	5.1%	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	24.8%	87.2%	0.4%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	81.9%	0.5%	0.8%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	78.5%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	74.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.6273
National Blend	63%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.3994
ICON	54%	71.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2916
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2852
IFS HRES	18%	64.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0339
AIFS Single	7%	62.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0055
WeatherNext 2	5%	62.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0023

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗