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KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
79%
ICON
54%
HRES
18%
AIFS
7%
WN2
5%
Consensus
32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 42.0¢Risks 42.00u
VS
WN2NO 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.00u · WN2 −58.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.6% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 46.2% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:0010-12 04:0210-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:02:04+00:007.9%72.8%7.6%46.2%69.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:007.9%72.8%7.6%46.2%69.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:007.9%72.8%6.0%46.2%69.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:007.9%72.8%6.0%46.2%69.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:007.9%72.8%6.0%46.2%69.8%
2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:005.9%72.8%6.0%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:005.9%72.8%6.0%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:005.9%72.8%6.0%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:005.9%72.8%6.0%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:005.9%72.8%6.0%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:005.9%72.8%4.7%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:005.9%79.3%4.7%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:005.9%79.3%4.7%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:007.3%79.3%4.7%18.4%54.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:007.4%79.2%4.8%18.4%54.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble79%74.6°F5.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.6273
National Blend63%72.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.3994
ICON54%71.2°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.2916
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:000.2852
IFS HRES18%64.6°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0339
AIFS Single7%62.8°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0055
WeatherNext 25%62.9°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0023

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗