KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

AIFSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.75u · AIFS −73.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	35.8%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	95.1%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	97.9%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	98.2%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	27.5%	90.4%	0.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.6%	18.9%	0.7%	—	2.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.5%	44.7%	1.3%	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.5%	2.3%	1.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.0%	13.4%	2.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	19.6%	5.2%	—	1.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.0%	17.2%	5.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.0%	7.4%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	6.8%	3.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.0%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.1%	10.8%	1.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.3%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.6%	4.5%	0.9%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.4%	4.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.0%	3.1%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	11.4%	3.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.9%	5.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.8%	9.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.1%	8.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	14.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	28.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	35.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	19.2%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	54%	75.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2873
IFS Ensemble	49%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.2440
IFS HRES	6%	64.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0031
WeatherNext 2	3%	64.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0010
AIFS Single	3%	64.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗