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KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
49%
HRES
6%
WN2
3%
AIFS
3%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 26.2¢Risks 26.25u
VS
AIFSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.75u · AIFS −73.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T07:32:41+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 49.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T07:32:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:41+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 5.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:41+00:003.1%49.4%3.2%5.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:003.1%49.4%3.2%5.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:003.1%49.4%3.2%5.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:003.1%49.4%3.2%5.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:21+00:003.1%49.4%3.2%5.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend54%75.0°F5.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.2873
IFS Ensemble49%74.4°F7.1°F2026-10-10 00:000.2440
IFS HRES6%64.4°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.0031
WeatherNext 23%64.7°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.0010
AIFS Single3%64.1°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0010

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗