KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

23%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	9.0%	0.1%	78.1%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	22.1%	12.8%	66.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	13.8%	2.4%	54.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	42.1%	55.6%	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	18.4%	11.6%	38.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	52.6%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	44.8%	5.9%	21.4%	—	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.5%	31.0%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	14.4%	5.5%	17.2%	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	9.2%	12.2%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	10.2%	11.6%	19.0%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	4.7%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	8.6%	5.5%	21.9%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	2.2%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	1.9%	9.4%	26.4%	—	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	1.8%	7.5%	88.8%	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	2.7%	9.0%	50.0%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	1.7%	6.2%	60.7%	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	3.0%	3.5%	35.4%	35.4%	68.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	1.2%	1.3%	57.7%	—	62.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	1.6%	1.0%	25.1%	27.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	12.4%	0.3%	33.8%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	4.0%	0.0%	34.5%	18.2%	60.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	2.4%	0.0%	50.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	2.9%	0.0%	42.1%	36.1%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	1.7%	0.0%	50.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	30%	65.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0882
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605
IFS HRES	23%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0511
ICON	7%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0055
National Blend	2%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0005
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗