KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

25%

23%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

EPSNO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.15u · EPS −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:44+00:00	48.3%	0.7%	52.9%	34.5%	32.4%
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	48.3%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	32.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	48.3%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	32.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	48.3%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	32.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	32.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	44.7%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	41.5%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	41.5%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	44.0%	0.1%	41.5%	34.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	41.5%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	41.5%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	41.5%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	41.5%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	41.5%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	46.5%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:40+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	40.4%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	45.7%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	45.7%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	49.1%	0.1%	45.7%	15.9%	9.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:32+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	45.7%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	45.7%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	45.7%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	45.7%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	44.4%	0.1%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	44.4%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	44.4%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	41.8%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	44.1%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	44.1%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	44.1%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	47.2%	0.0%	44.1%	34.4%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	48.8%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	46.3%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	6.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	44.1%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	42.0%	2.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	38.6%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	2.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	3.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	3.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	3.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	39.8%	32.2%	3.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	39.8%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	44.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	48.7%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	41.1%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	41.1%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	46.1%	0.0%	41.1%	31.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	41.1%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	41.1%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	41.1%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	41.1%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	41.1%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	42.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	38.1%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	34.0%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	41.8%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	41.8%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	41.8%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	38.0%	0.0%	41.8%	40.4%	9.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	41.8%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	41.8%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	41.8%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	41.8%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	30.6%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	34.0%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	24.6%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	24.6%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	24.6%	22.6%	7.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	29.7%	0.0%	24.6%	22.6%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	30%	65.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0882
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605
IFS HRES	23%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0511
ICON	7%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0055
National Blend	2%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0005
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003
IFS Ensemble	<1%	80.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗