KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

54%

52%

47%

25%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

ICONNO 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.95u · ICON −40.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:10+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	52.3%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	57.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	44.4%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	78.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	44.4%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	78.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	44.4%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	78.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	44.4%	87.2%	53.5%	53.0%	78.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:46+00:00	44.4%	87.2%	53.5%	46.5%	78.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	44.4%	84.9%	51.0%	46.5%	78.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	44.4%	84.9%	51.0%	46.5%	78.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	44.4%	84.9%	51.0%	46.5%	78.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	50.8%	84.9%	51.0%	46.5%	78.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	50.8%	84.9%	51.0%	46.5%	78.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	47.2%	93.1%	60.5%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	60.5%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	60.5%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	58.2%	42.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	58.2%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	49.1%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	57.1%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	55.9%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	55.9%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	47.2%	93.2%	55.9%	46.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	48.0%	93.2%	55.9%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	48.0%	93.2%	55.9%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	48.0%	93.2%	55.9%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	48.0%	93.2%	55.9%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	48.0%	93.2%	55.9%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	48.0%	88.7%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	48.0%	88.7%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	48.0%	88.7%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	50.0%	88.7%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	50.0%	88.3%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	60.2%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	36.6%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	45.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	50.0%	88.6%	55.1%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	50.0%	93.6%	56.8%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	50.0%	93.6%	56.8%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	50.0%	93.6%	56.8%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	50.0%	93.6%	56.8%	53.2%	20.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	51.0%	93.3%	56.8%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	51.0%	93.3%	56.8%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	51.0%	93.1%	56.8%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	51.0%	93.1%	56.8%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	51.0%	93.1%	52.7%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	51.0%	93.1%	52.7%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	51.0%	93.1%	52.7%	53.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	52.7%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	52.7%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	52.7%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	52.7%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	52.7%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	50.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	48.6%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	54.1%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	54.1%	46.8%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	52.0%	93.1%	54.1%	46.8%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	68.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	61.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗