KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

54%

52%

47%

25%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

ICONNO 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.95u · ICON −40.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	85.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	76.7%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	41.0%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	16.3%	55.4%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	75.4%	67.7%	10.5%	—	58.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	68.3%	44.2%	26.6%	—	52.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	33.0%	53.0%	48.5%	—	46.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	66.3%	73.2%	46.8%	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	33.0%	49.2%	42.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	20.8%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	66.2%	43.0%	43.0%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	27.1%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	39.1%	60.9%	50.0%	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	23.1%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	45.1%	26.3%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	43.0%	53.0%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	53.1%	43.9%	24.3%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	50.0%	51.1%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	47.8%	53.3%	24.7%	5.0%	25.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	43.3%	54.5%	1.7%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	40.8%	63.7%	27.0%	23.3%	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	44.0%	65.3%	27.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	30.9%	68.0%	29.8%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	33.7%	76.2%	16.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	35.6%	73.9%	23.0%	24.0%	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	31.2%	77.9%	28.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	34.5%	78.8%	26.8%	16.3%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	68.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	61.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗