KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

53%

48%

46%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

EPSNO 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.05u · EPS −59.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:32+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	44.2%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	44.2%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	44.2%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	44.2%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	41.5%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	44.8%	14.3%	41.5%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	44.8%	7.4%	41.5%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	44.8%	7.4%	41.5%	54.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	50.0%	7.4%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	50.0%	7.4%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	41.5%	54.0%	22.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	41.5%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	41.5%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	41.5%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	41.5%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	40.4%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	51.7%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	45.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	51.9%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	51.9%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	51.9%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	51.9%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	51.9%	6.9%	43.6%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	51.9%	6.8%	39.5%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	51.9%	6.8%	39.5%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	51.9%	6.8%	39.5%	48.4%	66.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	39.5%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	52.8%	6.9%	39.5%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	52.8%	6.9%	39.5%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	39.5%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	39.5%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	66.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	40.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	40.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	41.8%	58.0%	40.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	41.8%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	50.9%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	42.9%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	44.1%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	44.1%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	52.8%	6.8%	44.1%	53.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	52.0%	6.8%	44.1%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	52.0%	6.8%	44.1%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	52.0%	6.8%	44.1%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	52.0%	6.8%	44.1%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	52.0%	6.8%	44.1%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	52.0%	11.3%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	52.0%	11.3%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	52.0%	11.3%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	50.0%	11.3%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	50.0%	11.7%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	39.8%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	63.4%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	51.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	54.9%	62.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	50.0%	11.4%	44.9%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	50.0%	6.4%	43.2%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	50.0%	6.4%	43.2%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	50.0%	6.4%	43.2%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	50.0%	6.4%	43.2%	46.8%	79.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	49.0%	6.7%	43.2%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	49.0%	6.7%	43.2%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	49.0%	6.9%	43.2%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	49.0%	6.9%	43.2%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	49.0%	6.9%	47.3%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	49.0%	6.9%	47.3%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	49.0%	6.9%	47.3%	46.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	47.3%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	47.3%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	47.3%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	47.3%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	47.3%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	50.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	51.4%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	45.9%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	45.9%	53.2%	75.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	48.0%	6.9%	45.9%	53.2%	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	61.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	68.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗