KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

53%

48%

46%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.9¢Risks 40.95u

EPSNO 59.1¢Risks 59.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.05u · EPS −59.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	23.3%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	59.0%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	83.7%	44.6%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	24.6%	32.3%	89.5%	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	31.7%	55.8%	73.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	67.0%	46.9%	51.5%	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	33.7%	26.8%	53.2%	—	52.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	67.0%	50.8%	57.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	79.2%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	33.8%	57.0%	57.0%	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	72.9%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.5%	60.9%	39.1%	50.0%	—	65.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	76.9%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	72.1%	54.9%	73.7%	—	70.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	57.0%	47.0%	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	46.9%	56.1%	75.7%	—	70.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	50.0%	48.9%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	52.2%	46.7%	75.3%	95.0%	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	56.7%	45.5%	98.3%	—	75.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	59.2%	36.3%	73.0%	76.7%	75.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	56.0%	34.7%	72.7%	—	77.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	69.2%	32.0%	70.2%	—	76.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	66.3%	23.8%	83.4%	—	80.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	64.4%	26.2%	77.0%	76.0%	80.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	68.8%	22.1%	71.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	65.5%	21.2%	73.2%	83.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	61.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	63.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	68.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 63°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-LE63
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗