KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

77%

73%

71%

64%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.95u · ICON −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:10+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	82.3%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	63.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	75.7%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	84.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	75.7%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	84.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	75.7%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	84.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	75.7%	82.9%	58.0%	56.9%	84.6%
2026-10-14T10:34:47+00:00	75.7%	82.9%	58.0%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	75.7%	76.6%	58.6%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	75.7%	76.6%	58.6%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	75.7%	76.6%	58.6%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	68.8%	76.6%	58.6%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	69.2%	76.5%	58.5%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	58.5%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	58.5%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	58.5%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	65.0%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	65.0%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	69.2%	77.8%	65.0%	40.4%	84.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	65.0%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	65.0%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	65.0%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	65.0%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	65.0%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	60.2%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	51.5%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	51.5%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	51.5%	77.8%	64.2%	99.0%	85.9%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	65.7%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	84.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	65.7%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	84.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	65.7%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	84.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	65.7%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	84.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	65.3%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	65.3%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	65.3%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	65.3%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	65.3%	72.8%	66.9%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	65.3%	83.3%	75.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	65.3%	83.3%	75.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	65.3%	83.3%	75.8%	74.5%	75.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	67.6%	83.3%	75.8%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	67.7%	83.3%	75.8%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	75.8%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	75.8%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	75.8%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	67.7%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	71.4%	42.1%	75.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	71.4%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	70.0%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	74.9%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	73.2%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	73.2%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	69.2%	84.9%	73.2%	37.4%	75.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	71.3%	84.9%	73.2%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	71.3%	84.9%	73.2%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	71.3%	84.9%	73.2%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	71.3%	84.9%	73.2%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	71.3%	84.9%	73.2%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	71.3%	77.1%	84.3%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	71.3%	77.1%	84.3%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	71.3%	77.1%	84.3%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	71.3%	77.1%	84.3%	73.4%	63.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	71.3%	76.8%	84.3%	73.4%	63.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	85%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	66.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	64.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗