KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

77%

73%

71%

64%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

ICONNO 26.0¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.95u · ICON −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	33.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	24.6%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	19.4%	50.7%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	41.6%	38.2%	9.0%	—	53.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	74.6%	85.2%	81.6%	—	70.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	77.8%	78.9%	63.5%	—	83.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	69.2%	20.6%	35.9%	—	64.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	75.5%	55.0%	50.8%	—	48.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	27.4%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	64.6%	73.1%	71.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	89.6%	66.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	64.4%	76.3%	80.4%	—	54.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	25.3%	74.7%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	56.8%	72.1%	67.8%	—	55.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	70.1%	72.6%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	92.2%	58.2%	65.1%	4.4%	52.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	81.7%	58.4%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	90.6%	84.5%	69.9%	—	52.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	82.5%	80.2%	1.4%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	52.3%	83.2%	81.0%	5.4%	59.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	78.4%	74.7%	75.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	88.2%	77.3%	69.2%	53.7%	66.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	93.6%	73.1%	63.9%	—	65.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	90.5%	86.6%	73.9%	34.3%	61.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	96.5%	97.9%	88.2%	—	74.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.7%	96.0%	96.8%	86.2%	61.4%	83.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	95.2%	98.2%	—	86.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	95.2%	—	48.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	85%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	66.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	66.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	64.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗