KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

62%

50%

48%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

WN2NO 38.5¢Risks 38.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +38.55u · WN2 −38.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:40+00:00	36.9%	64.5%	47.4%	97.9%	78.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	36.9%	64.5%	47.4%	97.9%	78.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	36.9%	64.5%	50.0%	97.9%	78.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	36.9%	64.5%	50.0%	97.9%	78.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	36.9%	64.5%	50.0%	97.9%	78.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:33+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	50.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	50.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	50.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	50.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	51.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	52.4%	64.5%	51.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	52.4%	60.7%	51.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	52.4%	60.7%	51.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	42.8%	60.7%	51.0%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	42.8%	60.7%	51.0%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.0%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.0%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.9%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.9%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.9%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	42.8%	61.9%	51.9%	31.4%	70.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	51.9%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	51.9%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	51.9%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	51.9%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	45.2%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	50.0%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	50.0%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	50.0%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	50.0%	61.9%	48.1%	62.2%	74.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	69.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗