KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

62%

62%

50%

48%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 61.5¢Risks 61.45u

WN2NO 38.5¢Risks 38.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +38.55u · WN2 −38.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	22.5%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	15.6%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	11.4%	37.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	28.6%	25.7%	4.5%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	61.6%	75.1%	70.3%	—	57.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	64.9%	66.3%	48.5%	—	71.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	54.0%	11.1%	22.4%	—	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	60.7%	38.5%	34.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	15.2%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	47.4%	57.0%	55.2%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	79.1%	49.1%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	46.3%	60.0%	65.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	12.7%	57.5%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	37.6%	53.9%	49.0%	—	36.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	51.0%	54.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	81.7%	37.8%	44.9%	1.3%	32.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	64.5%	37.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	77.8%	67.9%	48.9%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	64.3%	61.1%	0.3%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	30.0%	64.8%	61.5%	1.4%	36.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	57.2%	52.4%	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	71.3%	55.0%	45.0%	29.8%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	80.9%	48.7%	38.5%	—	39.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	73.9%	66.9%	48.7%	14.1%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	86.8%	90.8%	68.8%	—	48.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	84.6%	87.0%	64.2%	33.1%	60.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	81.9%	90.8%	—	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	69.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	67.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	68.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗