KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

40%

35%

34%

25%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.55u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.45u · HRES −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	42.9%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	42.9%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	36.1%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	36.1%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	36.1%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	35.4%	38.8%	36.1%	39.4%	25.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	36.1%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	36.1%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	36.1%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	36.1%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	37.2%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	33.9%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	35.0%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	35.0%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	35.0%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	39.0%	38.8%	35.0%	24.4%	71.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	38.4%	38.8%	35.0%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	38.4%	38.8%	35.0%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	38.4%	38.8%	35.0%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	38.4%	38.8%	35.0%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	38.4%	35.2%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	38.4%	35.2%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	38.4%	35.2%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	38.4%	35.2%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	42.2%	35.5%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	42.2%	35.5%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	42.2%	35.7%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	42.2%	35.7%	30.3%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	42.2%	35.7%	33.7%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	42.2%	35.7%	33.7%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	42.2%	35.7%	33.7%	35.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	33.7%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	33.7%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	33.7%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	33.7%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	33.7%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	40.3%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	29.2%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	25.9%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	25.9%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	44.1%	35.7%	25.9%	29.6%	12.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	45.0%	35.7%	25.9%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	45.0%	35.7%	25.9%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	45.0%	35.7%	25.9%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	45.0%	35.7%	25.9%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	45.0%	35.7%	25.9%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	45.0%	38.1%	35.3%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	45.0%	38.1%	35.3%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	45.0%	38.1%	35.3%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	43.9%	38.1%	35.3%	41.5%	33.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	43.9%	38.1%	35.3%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	29.1%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	29.1%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	29.1%	41.5%	34.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	29.1%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	29.1%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	29.1%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	29.1%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	29.1%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	42.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	28.0%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	43.9%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	35.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	34.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	34.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	34.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	35.3%	25.0%	34.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	65.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗