KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

40%

35%

34%

25%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.55u

HRESNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.45u · HRES −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	14.2%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.2%	25.4%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	18.0%	15.8%	2.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	47.1%	62.3%	56.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	50.0%	51.5%	33.7%	—	57.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	38.2%	5.3%	12.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	44.2%	23.8%	20.7%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	7.2%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	30.7%	39.6%	37.9%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	64.1%	31.8%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	28.9%	41.8%	47.2%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	5.3%	38.8%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	21.0%	34.8%	30.4%	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	31.7%	34.4%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	65.1%	20.4%	25.9%	0.3%	16.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	43.7%	19.8%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	58.7%	46.7%	28.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	42.2%	38.9%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	13.4%	41.9%	38.5%	0.3%	17.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	33.6%	29.3%	30.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	47.5%	30.9%	22.7%	12.4%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	59.0%	24.8%	17.4%	—	18.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	48.7%	40.7%	24.0%	4.0%	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	66.2%	73.5%	41.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	61.4%	65.5%	35.8%	12.2%	31.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	56.0%	71.5%	—	33.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	65.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗