KSFO / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

15%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 15.7¢Risks 7.83u

AIFSNO 84.4¢Risks 42.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.18u · AIFS −42.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	61.2%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	60.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	69.9%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	75.6%	42.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	51.4%	54.9%	87.8%	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	19.9%	10.9%	14.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	16.9%	16.0%	29.6%	—	12.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	24.2%	73.2%	56.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	18.4%	36.9%	40.9%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	65.0%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	27.7%	20.2%	21.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	6.9%	25.7%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	27.4%	17.2%	13.9%	—	36.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	66.5%	18.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	33.9%	20.3%	24.0%	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	21.9%	19.7%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	4.7%	32.1%	25.9%	92.6%	37.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	12.1%	31.6%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	5.6%	9.9%	21.3%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	11.2%	12.9%	97.3%	—	34.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	36.3%	10.5%	12.1%	90.6%	30.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	13.9%	16.7%	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	6.7%	14.4%	20.8%	34.2%	22.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	3.2%	17.4%	24.8%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	5.0%	7.4%	16.5%	52.7%	26.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	1.5%	0.9%	6.2%	—	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	1.8%	1.3%	7.3%	25.6%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	2.0%	0.7%	—	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	25%	65.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	15%	66.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	66.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261020-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗