KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

59%

53%

49%

33%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u

AIFSNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.05u · AIFS −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	3.4%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	13.7%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	17.6%	43.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	82.9%	34.3%	9.0%	—	59.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	28.5%	42.7%	55.8%	—	37.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	71.7%	43.2%	41.7%	—	42.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	86.4%	40.5%	88.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	92.3%	77.5%	34.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	7.8%	79.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	89.5%	83.3%	28.4%	—	55.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	51.8%	62.4%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	85.6%	33.9%	50.9%	—	40.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	36.1%	32.6%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	72.9%	9.8%	5.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	51.0%	40.1%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	69.7%	13.4%	7.8%	—	22.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	51.1%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	57.6%	3.8%	25.5%	—	24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	59.0%	18.3%	0.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	74.0%	34.1%	6.1%	0.1%	32.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	79.2%	13.9%	48.8%	—	38.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	73.4%	30.9%	13.7%	37.7%	38.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	37.3%	69.8%	—	39.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	67.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	65.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗