KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

WN2NO 86.3¢Risks 86.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.35u · WN2 −86.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	2.1%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.2%	0.9%	0.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	1.4%	3.1%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	1.1%	1.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.6%	0.7%	15.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	18.9%	6.1%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	6.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.2%	7.3%	0.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.5%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.0%	0.1%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	74.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	69.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	67.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗