KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.7¢Risks 13.65u

WN2NO 86.3¢Risks 86.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.35u · WN2 −86.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:04+00:00	5.9%	12.3%	0.4%	1.9%	11.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	5.9%	12.3%	0.4%	1.9%	11.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	5.9%	12.3%	0.4%	1.9%	11.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	2.6%	12.5%	0.7%	1.9%	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	2.6%	12.5%	0.7%	1.9%	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	2.6%	12.5%	0.7%	1.9%	11.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.7%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.7%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.7%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.7%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.7%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	1.6%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.9%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.6%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.6%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	0.5%	12.5%	0.6%	25.4%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	2.0%	12.5%	0.5%	1.3%	6.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	2.0%	12.5%	0.5%	1.3%	6.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	1.0%	6.6%	0.5%	1.5%	26.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	1.0%	6.6%	0.5%	1.5%	26.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	1.0%	6.6%	0.5%	1.5%	26.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	1.0%	6.6%	0.5%	1.5%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	27%	74.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	69.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	67.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	64.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	66.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗