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KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
20%
EPS
8%
ICON
5%
WN2
5%
HRES
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 10.9¢Risks 5.47u
VS
HRESNO 89.0¢Risks 44.52u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.52u · HRES −44.52u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 53.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 65.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 67.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 25.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 64.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 55.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 23.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 93.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 10.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 91.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0075.6%————57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0065.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0048.4%————10.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0061.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0024.4%————11.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0055.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0065.0%————8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0050.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:004.9%————13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0053.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0011.5%————14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0022.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0056.9%————9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0036.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0071.7%————12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0053.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0037.9%————16.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0028.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0057.1%————11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0039.0%—35.3%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0055.7%————18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0034.3%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0061.0%—86.2%——30.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0065.1%—31.6%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0059.6%————35.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0056.8%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0026.4%————31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0053.2%—12.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0053.2%—60.9%——25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0023.7%—0.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.6%53.4%24.9%——19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0043.8%—14.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0052.8%3.3%31.7%67.7%—13.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0068.6%—17.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0044.9%36.4%23.2%14.4%—27.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0058.2%—13.5%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0067.7%6.3%21.6%22.8%—22.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0056.2%—10.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0058.7%1.8%22.4%1.4%—16.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0055.7%—6.8%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0055.0%0.7%3.6%25.8%—18.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0057.6%63.4%3.0%——91.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0059.6%0.9%1.9%29.9%—10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0061.5%12.1%7.5%——9.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0061.8%1.3%23.0%11.9%—18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0066.5%20.3%23.1%——23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0068.7%3.4%52.9%64.3%—24.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0067.4%10.0%15.8%——21.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0069.7%3.5%42.8%55.1%—29.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0070.2%8.8%76.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0060.8%5.9%65.9%23.8%—24.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0063.3%5.1%30.5%87.1%—22.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0063.7%1.8%14.7%53.5%93.5%16.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0064.1%1.0%33.6%7.0%—11.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0059.9%1.4%14.4%32.0%10.6%10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0060.2%—9.8%1.6%—8.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single20%65.8°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%68.0°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%68.3°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend5%68.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%67.4°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast4%68.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES2%70.2°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗