KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

79%

63%

61%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

AIFSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.15u · AIFS −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	72.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	76.6%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	78.3%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	31.1%	84.5%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	66.4%	52.1%	11.9%	—	64.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	82.0%	92.4%	80.1%	—	61.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	62.0%	54.6%	35.8%	—	57.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	77.6%	31.6%	46.0%	—	69.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	71.7%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	61.5%	47.5%	73.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	56.0%	72.6%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	85.4%	50.9%	68.6%	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	69.0%	82.8%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	77.0%	76.3%	46.3%	—	46.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	84.1%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	55.8%	66.1%	51.0%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	63.7%	54.0%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	67.0%	25.1%	50.0%	—	55.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	58.4%	32.6%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	47.8%	48.9%	47.8%	16.9%	68.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	32.6%	12.9%	—	69.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	67.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	64.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	64.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗