KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

80%

79%

63%

61%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

AIFSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.15u · AIFS −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:05+00:00	59.7%	79.5%	60.9%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	59.7%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	59.7%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	59.7%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	58.1%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	58.1%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	58.1%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	58.1%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	58.1%	79.5%	58.6%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	58.1%	88.7%	64.2%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	58.1%	88.7%	64.2%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	58.1%	88.7%	64.2%	69.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	53.7%	88.7%	64.2%	59.0%	88.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	53.7%	88.7%	64.2%	59.0%	88.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	78.2%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	78.2%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	72.0%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	72.0%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	72.0%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	50.0%	84.0%	72.0%	66.7%	85.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	72.0%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	72.0%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	72.0%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	72.0%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	57.2%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	62.7%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	62.7%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	62.7%	84.0%	70.4%	77.6%	74.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	74.9%	51.6%	84.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	51.6%	84.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	51.6%	84.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	51.6%	84.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	62.0%	87.1%	77.4%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	62.0%	86.6%	79.7%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	62.0%	86.6%	79.7%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	62.0%	86.6%	79.7%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	79.7%	79.0%	62.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	61.1%	86.6%	79.8%	79.0%	62.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	67.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	64.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	64.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗