KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

71%

49%

25%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.05u · ICON −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	79.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	67.6%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	20.3%	75.1%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	52.8%	38.2%	6.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	70.9%	85.6%	68.3%	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	46.9%	39.4%	22.8%	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	64.1%	18.9%	30.9%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	56.5%	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	45.0%	31.5%	58.3%	—	50.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	39.0%	56.8%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	73.1%	33.8%	51.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	51.8%	69.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	60.9%	60.0%	28.9%	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	69.9%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	36.6%	47.1%	32.1%	—	36.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	44.0%	34.4%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	46.9%	11.8%	30.3%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	37.5%	16.3%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	27.3%	28.2%	27.3%	6.6%	47.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	15.4%	4.5%	—	47.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	12.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	87%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	68.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	65.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	63.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗