KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

71%

49%

25%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

ICONNO 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.05u · ICON −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	39.1%	79.3%	47.4%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	47.4%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	47.4%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	82.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	67.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	67.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	67.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	47.0%	67.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	48.3%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	39.1%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	49.1%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	53.4%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	53.4%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	37.7%	79.4%	53.4%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00	40.4%	79.4%	53.4%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	40.4%	79.4%	53.4%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	40.4%	79.4%	53.4%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	40.4%	79.4%	53.4%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	40.4%	79.4%	53.4%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	40.4%	74.0%	61.5%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	40.4%	74.0%	61.5%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	40.4%	74.0%	61.5%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	34.3%	74.0%	61.5%	53.4%	77.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	34.3%	74.0%	61.5%	53.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	46.8%	74.5%	51.9%	66.1%	63.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	46.8%	74.5%	52.9%	66.1%	63.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	46.8%	74.5%	52.9%	66.1%	63.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	46.8%	74.5%	52.9%	66.1%	63.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	46.8%	74.5%	52.9%	66.1%	63.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	45.7%	74.5%	52.9%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	45.7%	74.5%	52.9%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	45.7%	74.5%	52.9%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	45.7%	74.5%	52.9%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	45.7%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	45.7%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	45.7%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	45.7%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	55.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	54.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	54.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	49.1%	72.7%	54.3%	46.0%	82.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	54.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	54.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	54.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	54.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	54.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	43.9%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	44.8%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	44.8%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	44.8%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	44.8%	72.7%	55.3%	35.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	59.4%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	59.4%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	59.4%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	42.6%	70.5%	64.0%	64.0%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	64.0%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	64.0%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	64.0%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	64.0%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	64.0%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	57.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	46.3%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	47.0%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	47.0%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	47.0%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	47.0%	70.5%	65.1%	41.1%	24.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.6%	86.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.6%	86.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.6%	86.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.6%	86.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.7%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	47.0%	76.8%	62.7%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T15:32:44+00:00	47.0%	76.1%	62.7%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T16:18:02+00:00	47.0%	76.1%	62.7%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T17:03:31+00:00	49.0%	76.1%	70.9%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	49.0%	76.1%	70.9%	86.9%	25.0%
2026-10-20T18:33:48+00:00	49.0%	76.1%	70.9%	86.9%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	87%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	68.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	67.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	65.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	63.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗