KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

45%

39%

37%

28%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

HRESNO 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.20u · HRES −52.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	61.6%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	15.9%	69.4%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	45.8%	31.7%	4.4%	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	64.3%	81.1%	61.6%	—	39.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	39.4%	32.3%	17.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	56.4%	14.0%	24.2%	—	46.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	48.4%	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	36.9%	24.5%	50.0%	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	31.1%	48.3%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	65.4%	26.2%	43.0%	—	26.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	42.9%	60.7%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	51.8%	50.9%	21.6%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	61.2%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	27.9%	37.6%	24.0%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	34.4%	25.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	36.9%	7.4%	21.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	27.9%	10.6%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	19.0%	19.8%	19.0%	3.8%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	9.7%	2.4%	—	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	69.7°F	7.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	45%	65.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	64.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	64.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗