KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

55%

46%

32%

30%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.2¢Risks 46.15u

WN2NO 53.8¢Risks 53.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.85u · WN2 −53.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	53.8%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	55.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	12.1%	63.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	38.9%	25.7%	3.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	57.3%	75.7%	54.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	32.3%	25.8%	12.9%	—	28.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	48.4%	10.0%	18.4%	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	29.3%	18.4%	41.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	23.9%	39.8%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	57.0%	19.6%	34.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	34.2%	51.8%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	42.7%	41.8%	15.4%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	51.9%	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	20.3%	28.7%	17.1%	—	20.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	25.7%	18.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	27.6%	4.4%	15.1%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	19.8%	6.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.5%	13.1%	12.5%	2.0%	27.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	5.7%	1.2%	—	26.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	4.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	70.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	68.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	66.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	64.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	64.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗