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KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
43%
AIFS
24%
EPS
8%
WN2
6%
HRES
3%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 23.2¢Risks 23.25u
VS
HRESNO 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.75u · HRES −76.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 71.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 62.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 41.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 61.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.4% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 84.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 56.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 46.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 44.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 80.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 75.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 92.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0079.6%————62.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0049.5%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0061.0%————9.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0060.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.4%————13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0060.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:009.1%————14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0060.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0069.8%————11.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0068.4%————14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0033.5%————12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0023.2%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0052.7%————8.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0044.2%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0046.8%————11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0050.5%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0075.5%————23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0071.7%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0062.3%————35.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0065.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0050.0%————33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0058.9%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0056.0%————32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0046.9%—10.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0047.5%—18.9%——32.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0062.6%—10.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0070.5%—17.2%——27.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0073.1%—19.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0062.6%62.6%11.8%——34.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0062.9%—11.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0070.8%27.5%40.9%84.2%—29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0064.0%—50.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0066.3%13.6%5.3%15.2%—31.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0070.0%—47.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0071.1%30.9%38.0%56.8%—35.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0072.8%—60.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0069.2%16.9%61.0%46.0%—23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0075.7%—21.8%——33.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0069.2%30.8%44.2%20.1%—25.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0064.2%35.8%20.8%——35.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0065.4%10.1%40.5%24.1%—40.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0062.4%23.5%12.1%——39.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0067.0%16.6%17.2%44.5%—44.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0067.4%10.8%26.1%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0068.7%34.8%25.5%39.4%—34.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0070.1%27.4%36.3%——92.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0067.0%24.3%66.0%39.8%—34.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0067.4%31.6%57.4%——22.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0064.9%41.3%40.3%41.3%75.3%22.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0064.3%—56.7%80.2%—21.4%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——60.4%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON43%63.1°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single24%65.4°F4.0°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
National Blend20%66.0°F4.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast15%66.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%68.5°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%67.2°F3.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES3%70.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗