KSFO / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

25%

10%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.2¢Risks 23.25u

HRESNO 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.75u · HRES −76.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:52+00:00	29.3%	12.2%	21.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	29.3%	12.2%	21.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	29.3%	12.2%	21.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	29.3%	12.2%	21.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	29.3%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	29.3%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	29.3%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	29.3%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	17.4%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	18.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	18.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	26.4%	8.2%	18.1%	30.9%	6.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	18.1%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	18.1%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	18.1%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	18.1%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	18.1%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	30.8%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	17.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	15.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	15.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	30.1%	8.2%	15.4%	40.5%	11.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	29.5%	8.2%	15.4%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	29.5%	8.2%	15.4%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	29.5%	8.2%	15.4%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	29.5%	8.2%	15.4%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	29.5%	8.2%	15.4%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	29.5%	8.5%	13.0%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	29.5%	8.5%	13.0%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	29.5%	8.5%	13.0%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	30.3%	8.5%	13.0%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	30.3%	8.5%	12.9%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	12.9%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	12.9%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	12.9%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	10.6%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	10.6%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	30.3%	9.5%	10.6%	15.1%	28.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.6%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.6%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.6%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.6%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.6%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	14.2%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	27.1%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	19.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	25.2%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	44.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	25.2%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	44.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	25.2%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	44.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	25.2%	9.5%	10.0%	32.7%	44.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	44.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	44.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	44.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	44.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	43.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	25.2%	7.5%	9.8%	3.2%	43.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:44+00:00	25.2%	7.8%	9.8%	3.2%	43.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	43%	63.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	65.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	66.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	66.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	68.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261022-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗