KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

86%

81%

79%

77%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 86.4¢Risks 43.20u

WN2NO 13.6¢Risks 6.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.80u · WN2 −6.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	44.1%	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	9.9%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	24.4%	27.7%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	31.7%	74.3%	14.1%	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	75.7%	80.1%	66.3%	—	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	76.6%	90.0%	46.9%	—	53.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	86.8%	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	94.7%	84.6%	65.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	82.7%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	98.1%	83.2%	55.0%	—	55.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	59.3%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	95.5%	86.9%	87.4%	—	57.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	93.2%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	95.4%	81.6%	92.1%	—	70.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	96.4%	85.2%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	91.4%	87.9%	88.4%	52.9%	76.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	88.6%	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	90.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	74.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	67.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	68.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	67.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗