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KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
96%
EPS
86%
HRES
81%
AIFS
79%
WN2
77%
Consensus
85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 86.4¢Risks 43.20u
VS
WN2NO 13.6¢Risks 6.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +6.80u · WN2 −6.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 72.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 64.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 80.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 96.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:0072.3%84.8%68.1%64.8%85.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0072.3%84.8%69.6%64.8%85.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0072.3%84.8%69.6%64.8%85.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0072.3%84.8%69.6%64.8%85.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0072.3%84.8%69.6%64.8%85.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:0074.8%84.8%69.6%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0074.8%84.8%69.6%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0074.8%84.8%69.6%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0074.8%84.8%69.6%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0074.8%86.5%76.7%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0074.8%86.5%76.7%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0074.8%86.5%76.7%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0074.8%86.5%76.7%80.6%96.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0079.0%86.5%76.7%80.6%96.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON96%74.3°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble86%67.7°F3.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend85%67.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES81%68.5°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single79%67.5°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 277%66.5°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗