KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

82%

74%

72%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.7¢Risks 40.33u

AIFSNO 19.4¢Risks 9.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.68u · AIFS −9.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	33.0%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	85.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	5.3%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	15.1%	17.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	20.4%	61.8%	7.7%	—	52.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	62.9%	68.3%	52.2%	—	37.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	63.5%	81.6%	32.3%	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	76.5%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	88.9%	73.2%	50.0%	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	70.3%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	95.1%	70.7%	38.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	42.4%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	89.5%	75.2%	75.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	85.0%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	89.0%	67.0%	82.8%	—	52.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	90.8%	71.6%	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	81.0%	75.3%	76.0%	33.9%	59.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	75.9%	—	—	67.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	86%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	69.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	68.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗