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KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
WN2
6%
EPS
5%
ICON
3%
HRES
3%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.57u
VS
HRESNO 93.7¢Risks 23.43u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.43u · HRES −23.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 61.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 32.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 81.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 45.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 27.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 37.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 38.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 12:0010-14 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0047.9%————62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0068.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0031.1%————13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0063.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0062.5%————13.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0073.0%————18.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0043.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0034.5%————14.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0052.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0063.1%————10.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0065.0%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0056.4%————13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0062.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0056.4%————18.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0053.7%————34.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0073.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0064.5%————38.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0072.2%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0067.0%————32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0063.0%—39.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0039.6%—50.0%——29.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0070.0%—8.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0052.4%————34.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0051.8%—6.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0059.3%————32.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0058.9%—16.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0068.2%—87.0%——28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0069.7%—8.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0055.4%70.0%66.4%——30.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0055.5%—81.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0052.1%61.8%20.4%81.6%—27.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0054.3%—18.9%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0059.4%18.9%15.2%27.2%—40.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0057.4%—15.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0055.3%17.9%7.0%45.4%—39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0050.8%—9.5%——56.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0049.2%3.4%11.1%27.4%—37.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0042.7%—12.6%——39.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0041.7%1.1%12.0%36.9%—36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0038.2%32.6%6.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0043.9%2.8%9.0%8.6%—33.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0038.5%4.3%9.6%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0042.7%2.8%12.9%5.0%—22.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0032.6%2.1%10.0%——21.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0036.6%5.4%7.9%7.5%37.6%16.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0037.2%—7.3%——11.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single10%68.0°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%67.7°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%68.8°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%69.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 14:00Pending
ICON3%69.8°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend1%69.0°F2.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗