KSFO / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≤ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 6.3¢Risks 1.57u

HRESNO 93.7¢Risks 23.43u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.43u · HRES −23.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	14.8%	8.6%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	14.8%	8.6%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	14.8%	8.6%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	14.8%	8.6%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	14.8%	8.6%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	14.8%	6.5%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	14.8%	6.5%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	14.8%	6.5%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	12.0%	6.5%	14.2%	14.5%	1.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	11.9%	6.5%	14.1%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	14.1%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	14.1%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	14.1%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	11.9%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	1.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.8%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	14.2%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	11.3%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	9.5%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	2.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	9.8%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	3.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	9.8%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	3.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	9.8%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	3.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	9.8%	7.0%	8.9%	14.5%	3.4%
2026-10-20T15:32:45+00:00	9.8%	4.8%	6.1%	2.8%	3.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	10%	68.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	69.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	3%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	69.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 62°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-LE62
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗