KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

76%

65%

64%

57%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.0¢Risks 74.00u

EPSNO 26.0¢Risks 26.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +26.00u · EPS −26.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	69.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	7.2%	96.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	18.4%	93.3%	7.4%	—	27.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	90.7%	95.8%	82.5%	—	36.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	61.3%	96.1%	21.1%	—	46.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	89.2%	93.6%	94.1%	40.5%	69.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	95.9%	—	—	76.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	91%	76.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	76%	72.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	69.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	68.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗