KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

75%

69%

58%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 75.6¢Risks 75.65u

WN2NO 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.35u · WN2 −24.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	9.3%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	63.4%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	5.2%	94.2%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	14.1%	90.7%	5.2%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	87.2%	93.8%	77.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	53.8%	94.2%	16.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	85.1%	90.7%	91.3%	33.0%	61.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	93.8%	—	—	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	94%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	90%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	71.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	70.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	69.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗