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KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
94%
ICON
90%
EPS
75%
AIFS
69%
WN2
58%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 75.6¢Risks 75.65u
VS
WN2NO 24.4¢Risks 24.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.35u · WN2 −24.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 58.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 68.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 68.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00IFS HRES: 88.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 93.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 71.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 90.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:0058.1%48.2%56.0%88.2%71.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0058.1%48.2%56.0%88.2%71.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:0058.1%48.2%61.8%88.2%71.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0058.1%48.2%61.8%88.2%71.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0058.1%48.2%61.8%88.2%71.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0068.6%48.2%61.8%88.2%90.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0068.6%48.2%61.8%88.2%90.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:0068.6%48.2%61.8%88.2%90.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0068.6%48.2%61.8%88.2%90.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:0068.6%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0068.6%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0068.6%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0068.6%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:0068.7%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0068.7%75.0%57.7%93.6%90.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES94%77.3°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON90%76.4°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%71.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single69%70.9°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend65%71.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%69.3°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗