KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

49%

21%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u

WN2NO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +69.30u · WN2 −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	58.7%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.7%	46.5%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	62.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	37.1%	52.9%	23.7%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	51.5%	0.6%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	28.8%	39.0%	40.5%	2.1%	9.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	55.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	56%	77.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	71.0°F	10.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 11:03 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗