KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

77%

65%

55%

42%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.7¢Risks 69.70u

AIFSNO 30.3¢Risks 30.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.30u · AIFS −30.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	36.3%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	95.5%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	20.2%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	7.5%	97.6%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	51.4%	95.6%	2.6%	—	36.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	44.2%	97.1%	96.1%	5.7%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	97.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	98%	80.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	71.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	70.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	68.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	66.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗