KSFO / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

55%

54%

38%

27%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

ICONNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.30u · ICON −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	71.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	78.5%	—	28.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	79.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	88.6%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	95.0%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	3.6%	54.0%	6.8%	44.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	90.5%	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	90.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	96%	80.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	70.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.3°F	7.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	70.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	63.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 70°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗