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KSLC / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≤ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
11%
ICON
4%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.7¢Risks 1.43u
VS
AIFSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.57u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.57u · AIFS −23.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 86.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 42.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.5% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.7% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 52.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 59.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 93.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 22.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 13.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 93.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0009-30 12:0010-08 06:0010-15 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:0083.8%————36.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.4%————0.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:002.7%————0.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:008.1%—————
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:0067.0%————0.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0024.0%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0010.5%—2.4%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0019.3%————4.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0024.0%————8.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:0074.8%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0013.4%————6.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0046.3%————6.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0033.7%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:006.6%————6.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:003.9%—94.5%———
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.0%————7.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:007.7%—67.6%——12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0014.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0026.7%————7.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—5.9%———
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0092.4%—75.1%——12.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0086.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0094.7%—93.1%——14.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0097.0%—86.7%———
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0098.2%42.6%77.7%——26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0079.2%—88.7%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0079.6%7.4%52.8%52.1%—18.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0014.4%—52.9%———
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0039.2%14.8%13.2%41.3%—13.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0016.5%—6.5%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0013.8%21.1%6.0%59.1%—17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:009.8%—8.6%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:009.0%33.7%2.0%10.0%—13.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—8.2%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.9%5.3%10.1%4.3%—12.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.5%22.0%8.2%——93.9%
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:006.5%17.2%9.0%3.2%—11.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.8%0.8%7.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.8%1.2%5.8%0.4%—7.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.4%1.4%8.1%——29.2%
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.6%0.4%5.1%3.5%—5.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.7%0.1%4.4%——4.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.2%4.2%0.1%—5.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.9%3.5%5.2%——3.5%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.9%4.5%1.3%0.0%—3.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.1%4.5%1.8%93.3%—4.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.6%4.5%0.1%0.2%—2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.9%3.7%0.4%0.2%—3.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.6%3.3%0.1%0.1%12.4%2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.5%3.7%0.2%0.1%—2.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.3%5.3%0.2%0.1%22.0%2.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%2.7%0.2%0.1%—1.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.3%0.1%0.1%13.0%0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.1%1.8%0.1%0.1%—0.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.5%0.2%0.1%3.4%1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%0.4%0.2%—0.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-11 14:000.0119
IFS HRES11%59.7°F5.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.0114
ICON4%63.8°F5.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0016
IFS Ensemble4%61.9°F4.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0014
National Blend3%60.0°F3.4°F2026-10-11 06:000.0007
WeatherNext 22%61.1°F3.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.0004
AIFS Single<1%64.7°F4.6°F2026-10-11 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261015-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗