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KSLC / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≤ 53°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 18:58 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
11%
ICON
4%
EPS
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.7¢Risks 1.43u
VS
AIFSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.57u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.57u · AIFS −23.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 13:3510-11 18:58
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:001.0%2.5%5.4%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:001.0%2.5%5.4%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:001.0%2.5%5.4%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:001.0%2.5%5.4%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:001.0%2.5%5.4%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:001.0%3.5%3.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:001.0%3.5%3.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:001.0%3.5%3.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:000.7%3.5%3.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:000.7%3.7%3.2%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:000.7%3.8%3.2%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:000.7%3.8%3.2%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:000.7%3.8%3.2%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:000.7%3.8%2.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:000.7%3.8%2.1%10.7%4.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:000.7%3.8%2.1%10.7%4.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast11%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-11 14:000.0119
IFS HRES11%59.7°F5.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.0114
ICON4%63.8°F5.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0016
IFS Ensemble4%61.9°F4.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.0014
National Blend3%60.0°F3.4°F2026-10-11 06:000.0007
WeatherNext 22%61.1°F3.7°F2026-10-11 06:000.0004
AIFS Single<1%64.7°F4.6°F2026-10-11 06:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261015-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗