KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 09 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

48%

19%

18%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.0¢Risks 35.00u

WN2NO 65.0¢Risks 65.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.00u · WN2 −65.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	52.0%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	54.9%	68.9%	0.3%	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	8.7%	50.7%	78.5%	—	64.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	77.2%	43.9%	81.1%	—	58.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	1.7%	80.0%	86.9%	—	68.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	91.6%	95.3%	74.2%	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	37.4%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	89.5%	90.3%	70.9%	—	65.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	84.5%	87.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	71.8%	88.1%	55.5%	—	70.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	70.8%	87.3%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	53.9%	78.2%	62.4%	—	71.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	61.8%	86.5%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	64.1%	80.3%	73.2%	—	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	63.5%	87.9%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	61.8%	94.7%	67.9%	—	70.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	68.5%	96.9%	0.0%	—	73.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	65.9%	96.9%	75.8%	43.0%	74.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	70.7%	97.3%	77.5%	—	76.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	72.4%	97.0%	78.3%	51.2%	77.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	74.1%	97.4%	78.1%	—	74.1%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	74.9%	96.8%	77.0%	56.7%	76.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	78.9%	97.3%	74.7%	—	78.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	90.5%	95.3%	76.6%	69.5%	81.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	88.8%	95.2%	74.0%	—	83.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	88.3%	94.8%	80.8%	75.0%	86.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	90.8%	96.9%	86.9%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	63.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.1505
National Blend	53%	62.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.2237
IFS Ensemble	48%	61.1°F	7.8°F	2026-10-08 00:00	0.2704
AIFS Single	19%	56.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.6561
ICON	18%	52.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.6691
WeatherNext 2	9%	54.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-08 18:00	0.8317

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗