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KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 09 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
61%
EPS
48%
AIFS
19%
ICON
18%
WN2
9%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 35.0¢Risks 35.00u
VS
WN2NO 65.0¢Risks 65.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.00u · WN2 −65.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00AIFS Single: 19.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.8% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00IFS HRES: 61.2% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:00ICON: 18.2% · 2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:0010-09 07:5110-09 09:2210-09 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T07:51:44+00:0019.0%48.0%8.8%61.2%18.2%
2026-10-09T08:37:15+00:0019.0%48.0%8.8%61.2%18.2%
2026-10-09T09:22:20+00:0019.0%48.0%8.8%61.2%18.2%
2026-10-09T10:07:27+00:0019.0%48.0%8.8%61.2%18.2%
2026-10-09T10:52:33+00:0019.0%48.0%8.8%61.2%18.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES61%63.3°F6.3°F2026-10-09 00:000.1505
National Blend53%62.0°F7.2°F2026-10-09 00:000.2237
IFS Ensemble48%61.1°F7.8°F2026-10-08 00:000.2704
AIFS Single19%56.6°F5.6°F2026-10-09 00:000.6561
ICON18%52.6°F9.8°F2026-10-09 00:000.6691
WeatherNext 29%54.3°F5.3°F2026-10-08 18:000.8317

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 09 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗